2022-10-02 00:46:07
We'll start this somewhat lengthy breakdown with the monthly chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/mLkHzfww/
This imo does NOT look like something that has comfortably found a bottom, albeit this is a monthly chart so there's a lot of inner-PA that plays out within this candle.
Price has remained roughly the same for the last 90 days, these consolidation/boring/choppy PA conditions are a form of shakeout. I think that the next large nuke is the buy signal, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a -5K candle soon.
We are STILL focusing on LTFs/scalping with the aforementioned bias in mind (prices prolly go lower). I think end of the year is probably not the best time for most hedge funds or bigger players to take on significant risk as well so I have a hard time believing the bull market suddenly begins now rather than early/mid of 2023.
Truth be told, I could care less about what happens 6 months from now and neither should you if you're trading daily. This is just a general framework for how we will try to navigate the markets in the next couple weeks.
Remember what we spoke about earlier this year:
WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR A PRICE, BUT RATHER A MARKET REACTION OR CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT
Will price bottom at $10K? Maybe $15K? Who knows, it's a somewhat useless prediction. What we really want to see is a buying reaction despite bad news and/or shifting of bad news into good news.
Bull markets and bear markets are simply 2 sides of the same coin. What truly confirmed the end of the bull market? Hindsight being 64K but how could you have known that 64K was a top without some voo doo hindsight BS? Well, you probably couldn't but a much easier approach is understanding that:
1. Markets reversed upon government intervention
2. Money printer goes brrrrr
3. Market risk tolerance goes up because of how well the stock market performs + free money being given out
4. Profit!
Now as soon as those initial catalysts for the 2021-2022 bull run disappears (no more money printing, inflation, war, recession). We have a good idea that whereever prices may be, that we should probably plan for a trend reversal.
Same idea here but on the bearish side. We have all the bearish catalysts active, and until those are resolved in some way (or at least eased upon), there's no reason for us to rush head first into giga longs.
Play liquid alts, if we DO see a nuke within the week/month, your illiquid ALTs will get slipped far more than say BTC or ETH. I've seen scenarios where people are in "safe" coins likeUNI or SUSHI and consequently get liq'd off a crazy wick.
The goal isnt to go from zero to hero in these market environments. If you can, more power to you but for most people, this is a period of small compounding and more importantly: learning.
Harshest environments to trade that require high skill + discipline to survive. Best environment to learn, probably not the best to make life changing money but... skills will eventually pay the bills. Focus on skill development and the money will come.
302 views21:46
B
