2024-04-16 21:31:53
Bitcoin miners could liquidate $5b in BTC post-halving Market analysts predict that miners might sell off around $5 billion worth of Bitcoin in the months after the upcoming halving, a trend seen in past cycles.
According to estimations by Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, in an April 13 analyst note, bitcoin miners might liquidate $5 billion in BTC following the halving.
“The overhang from this selling could last four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might go sideways for the next few months — as it has done following past halvings,” he said in a statement.
Thielen believes that this might happen again, with crypto markets facing “a significant challenge in a six-month’summer’ lull.”
Bitcoin prices remained in the range bound between $9,000 and $11,500 for the five months following the 2020 halving.
This year, the halving will take place around April 20, only six days away, therefore markets may not experience a big upward trend until around October, if history repeats.
Furthermore, miners prefer to stockpile BTC, “leading to a supply/demand imbalance and a subsequent rally in Bitcoin prices,” leading up to the halving, he stated.
This has already happened, with Bitcoin values rising 74% in 2024 to a record high of $73,734 on March 14 before falling below $63,000 in mid-April.
Thielen also pointed out the disproportionate impact on altcoins, which have significantly receded from their peak values in 2021. Despite speculation about a post-halving altcoin rally, Thielen referenced historical evidence suggesting such a rally would typically start around six months later.
Focusing on specific mining operations, Thielen mentioned that Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, has accumulated an inventory likely to be gradually sold post-halving to avoid a sharp drop in revenue. Marathon currently mines approximately 28–30 BTC per day, and post-halving, this could add up to 133 days of additional supply to the market, with an ongoing production of 14–15 BTC per day.
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